A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."